Validation of the severe COVID-19 prognostic value of serum IL-6, IFN-λ3, CCL17, and calprotectin considering the timing of clinical need for prediction.

Although biomarkers to predict coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity have been studied since the early pandemic, no clear guidelines on using them in clinical practice are available. Here, we examined the ability of four biomarkers to predict disease severity using conserved sera from COVID-19 patients who received inpatient care between January 1, 2020 and September 21, 2021 at the National Center for Global Health and Medicine, collected at the appropriate time for prediction. We predicted illness severity in two situations: 1) prediction of future oxygen administration for patients without oxygen support within 8 days of onset (Study 1) and 2) prediction of future mechanical ventilation support (excluding non-invasive positive pressure ventilation) or death of patients within 4 days of the start of oxygen administration (Study 2). Interleukin-6, IFN-λ3, thymus and activation-regulated chemokine, and calprotectin were measured retrospectively. Other laboratory and clinical information were collected from medical records. AUCs were calculated from ROC curves and compared for the predictive ability of the four biomarkers. Study 1 included 18 patients, five of whom had developed oxygen needs. Study 2 included 45 patients, 13 of whom required ventilator management or died. In Study 1, IFN-λ3 showed a good predictive ability with an AUC of 0.92 (95% CI 0.76-1.00). In Study 2, the AUC of each biomarker was 0.70-0.74. The number of biomarkers above the cutoff showed the possibility of good prediction with an AUC of 0.86 (95% CI 0.75-0.97). When two or more biomarkers were positive, sensitivity and specificity were 0.92 and 0.63, respectively. In terms of biomarker testing at times when prognostication may be clinically useful, IFN-λ3 was predictive of oxygenation demand and a combination of the four biomarkers was predictive of mechanical ventilator requirement.

Characteristics of hospitalized COVID-19 patients with other respiratory pathogens identified by rapid diagnostic test.

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) significantly impact disease treatment strategy. In Japan, information on the use of RDTs for patients with COVID-19 is limited. Here, we aimed to investigate the RDT implementation rate, pathogen detection rate, and clinical characteristics of patients positive for other pathogens by using COVIREGI-JP, a national registry of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. A total of 42,309 COVID-19 patients were included. For immunochromatographic testing, influenza was the most common (n = 2881 [6.8%]), followed by Mycoplasma pneumoniae (n = 2129 [5%]) and group A streptococcus (GAS) (n = 372 [0.9%]). Urine antigen testing was performed for 5524 (13.1%) patients for S. pneumoniae and for 5326 patients (12.6%) for L. pneumophila. The completion rate of M. pneumonia loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) testing was low (n = 97 [0.2%]). FilmArray RP was performed in 372 (0.9%) patients; 1.2% (36/2881) of patients were positive for influenza, 0.9% (2/223) for the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), 9.6% (205/2129) for M. pneumoniae, and 7.3% (27/372) for GAS. The positivity rate for urine antigen testing was 3.3% (183/5524) for S. pneumoniae and 0.2% (13/5326) for L. pneumophila. The positivity rate for LAMP test was 5.2% (5/97) for M. pneumoniae. Five of 372 patients (1.3%) had positive FilmArray RP, with human enterovirus being the most frequently detected (1.3%, 5/372). The characteristics of patients with and without RDTs submission and positive and negative results differed for each pathogen. RDTs remain an important diagnostic tool in patients with COVID-19 in whom coinfection with other pathogens needs to be tested based on clinical evaluation.

Evaluation of the Detection of Pathogens in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 at a Tertiary Hospital in Japan.

The detection of other pathogens in patients with hospitalized coronavirus disease (COVID-19) are not frequent. Considering that data from Japan are limited, we conducted an observational study including patients with hospitalized COVID-19 at the National Center for Global Health and Medicine from January to September 2020. In total, 247 patients with COVID-19 were included in the study. Rapid diagnostic tests, such as immunochromatography, were performed in 31 patients (12.6%). The Film Array Respiratory Panel was performed in 18 (7.3%) patients, and none of the tests were positive for pathogens other than severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Respiratory bacterial culture was performed in 66 (26.7%) patients, with gram-positive bacteria, gram-negative bacteria and normal flora being detected in eight (12.1%), seven (10.6%), and 63 (95.5%) patients, respectively. Patients for whom cultures were performed were older, more severely ill, and more likely to have radiological evidence of pneumonia on admission. Culture was performed more frequently in the early than in the later period of the epidemic, without any differences being observed in bacterial detection rates. The proportion of viral and bacterial detection among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in tertiary care hospitals in Japan was low. A larger cohort study is necessary to evaluate the effect of each pathogen on the clinical course of COVID-19.

Factors associated with development and persistence of post-COVID conditions: A cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: The post-COVID condition has become a social concern. Although the patient characteristics associated with the development of this condition are partially known, those associated with its persistence have not been identified. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional questionnaire-based survey among patients who had recovered from COVID-19 and visited the National Center for Global Health and Medicine between February 2021 and March 2021. Demographic and clinical data, and data regarding the presence and duration of post-COVID conditions were obtained. We identified factors associated with the development and persistence of post-COVID conditions using multivariate logistic and linear regression analyses, respectively. RESULTS: We analyzed 457 of 526 responses (response rate, 86.9%). The median patient age was 47 years. Of these, 378 patients (84.4%) had mild disease in the acute phase. The number of patients with symptoms at 6 and 12 months after onset or diagnosis was 120 (26.3%) and 40 (8.8%), respectively. Women were at risk of developing fatigue (odds ratio [OR]: 2.03, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.31-3.14), dysosmia (OR: 1.91, 95%CI: 1.24-2.93), dysgeusia (OR: 1.56, 95%CI: 1.02-2.39), hair loss (OR: 3.00, 95%CI: 1.77-5.09), and persistence of any symptoms (coefficient: 38.0, 95%CI: 13.3-62.8). Younger age and low body mass index were factors for developing dysosmia (OR: 0.96, 95%CI: 0.94-0.98 and OR: 0.94, 95%CI: 0.89-0.99, respectively) and dysgeusia (OR: 0.98, 95%CI: 0.96-1.00 and OR: 0.93, 95%CI: 0.88-0.98, respectively). CONCLUSION: We identified factors involved in the development and persistence of post-COVID conditions. Many patients, even those with mild conditions, experience long-term residual symptoms.

Genetic association of IL17 and the importance of ABO blood group antigens in saliva to COVID-19.

The outbreak of COVID-19 caused by infection with SARS-CoV-2 virus has become a worldwide pandemic, and the number of patients presenting with respiratory failure is rapidly increasing in Japan. An international meta-analysis has been conducted to identify genetic factors associated with the onset and severity of COVID-19, but these factors have yet to be fully clarified. Here, we carried out genomic analysis based on a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in Japanese COVID-19 patients to determine whether genetic factors reported to be associated with the onset or severity of COVID-19 in the international meta-GWAS are replicated in the Japanese population, and whether new genetic factors exist. Although no significant genome-wide association was detected in the Japanese GWAS, an integrated analysis with the international meta-GWAS identified for the first time the involvement of the IL17A/IL17F gene in the severity of COVID-19. Among nine genes reported in the international meta-GWAS as genes involved in the onset of COVID-19, the association of FOXP4-AS1, ABO, and IFNAR2 genes was replicated in the Japanese population. Moreover, combined analysis of ABO and FUT2 genotypes revealed that the presence of oral AB antigens was significantly associated with the onset of COVID-19. FOXP4-AS1 and IFNAR2 were also significantly associated in the integrated analysis of the Japanese GWAS and international meta-GWAS when compared with severe COVID-19 cases and the general population. This made it clear that these two genes were also involved in not only the onset but also the severity of COVID-19. In particular, FOXP4-AS1 was not found to be associated with the severity of COVID-19 in the international meta-GWAS, but an integrated analysis with the Japanese GWAS revealed an association with severity. Individuals with the SNP risk allele found between IL17A and IL17F had significantly lower mRNA expression levels of IL17F, suggesting that activation of the innate immune response by IL17F may play an important role in the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Duration of Infectious Virus Shedding by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant-Infected Vaccinees.

To determine virus shedding duration, we examined clinical samples collected from the upper respiratory tracts of persons infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Omicron variant in Japan during November 29-December 18, 2021. Vaccinees with mild or asymptomatic infection shed infectious virus 6-9 days after onset or diagnosis, even after symptom resolution.

Clinical characteristics of the first three waves of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in Japan prior to the widespread use of vaccination: a nationwide observational study.

Background: Before widespread coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccinations, Japan experienced three COVID-19 epidemic waves. This study aimed to evaluate the characteristics of hospitalised COVID-19 patients and reveal temporal changes. Methods: This study included 33,554 hospitalised patients with COVID-19 from 553 healthcare facilities. Data were analysed by age group and epidemic wave (first wave, 01/01/2020-05/31/2020; second wave, 06/01/2020-10/31/2020; and third wave, 11/01/2020-03/31/2021). Findings: By age group, 3% (under 18), 22% (young), 34% (middle-aged), and 41% (older patients) were aged 0-17, 18-39, 40-64, and >65 years; while 16%, 35%, and 49% were in the first, second, and third wave, respectively. The patients' overall median age (58 years; interquartile range, 39-74) was lowest and highest during the second and third waves, respectively. The frequency of any comorbidity was lowest and highest during the second (44·5%) and third (63·6%) waves, respectively. The symptoms at admission and exposure history differed considerably with age. The overall case fatality rate (5%) was highest among older patients (11·4%). Case fatality rate was highest and lowest during the first (7·3%) and second (2·8%) waves, respectively. Medication use changed over time. Interpretation: Although the overall case fatality rate remained relatively low, it was more than twice as high among older patients. After adjusting for age and comorbidities, the risk of death was highest in the first wave. Funding: This work was supported by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare "Research on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases and Immunization" 19HA1003].

Clinical Epidemiology of Hospitalized Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan: Report of the COVID-19 Registry Japan.

BACKGROUND: There is limited understanding of the characteristics of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) requiring hospitalization in Japan. METHODS: This study included 2638 cases enrolled from 227 healthcare facilities that participated in the COVID-19 Registry Japan (COVIREGI-JP). The inclusion criteria for enrollment of a case in COVIREGI-JP are both (1) a positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) test and (2) inpatient treatment at a healthcare facility. RESULTS: The median age of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 was 56 years (interquartile range [IQR], 40-71 years). More than half of cases were male (58.9%, 1542/2619). Nearly 60% of the cases had close contact to confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19. The median duration of symptoms before admission was 7 days (IQR, 4-10 days). The most common comorbidities were hypertension (15%, 396/2638) and diabetes without complications (14.2%, 374/2638). The number of nonsevere cases (68.2%, n = 1798) was twice the number of severe cases (31.8%, n = 840) at admission. The respiratory support during hospitalization includes those who received no oxygen support (61.6%, 1623/2636) followed by those who received supplemental oxygen (29.9%, 788/2636) and invasive mechanical ventilation/extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (8.5%, 225/2636). Overall, 66.9% (1762/2634) of patients were discharged home, while 7.5% (197/2634) died. CONCLUSIONS: We identified the clinical epidemiological features of COVID-19 in hospitalized patients in Japan. When compared with existing inpatient studies in other countries, these results demonstrated fewer comorbidities and a trend towards lower mortality.

Time-course evaluation of the quantitative antigen test for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2: The potential contribution to alleviating isolation of COVID-19 patients.

INTRODUCTION: The automated quantitative antigen test (QAT), which detects severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is suitable for mass screening. However, its diagnostic capability differentiated by time from onset and potential contribution to infectivity assessment have not been fully investigated. METHODS: A retrospective, observational study using nasopharyngeal swab specimens from coronavirus disease (COVID-19) inpatients was conducted using LumipulseⓇ SARS-CoV-2 antigen test. Diagnostic accuracy was examined for the early (up to 10 days after onset) and late (over 10 days after onset) stages. Time-course QAT changes and reverse-transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction tests results were displayed as locally estimated scatterplot smoothing curve, and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was used to determine the appropriate cutoff value for differentiating the early and late stages. RESULTS: We obtained 100 specimens from 68 COVID-19 patients, including 51 early-stage and 49 late-stage specimens. QAT sensitivity and specificity were 0.82 (0.72-0.90) and 0.95 (0.75-0.99) for all periods, 0.93 (0.82-0.98) and 1.00 (0.39-1.00) for the early stage, and 0.66 (0.48-0.82) and 0.93 (0.69-0.99) for the late stage, respectively. The ROC analysis indicated an ideal cutoff value of 6.93 pg/mL for distinguishing early-from late-stage specimens. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for predicting the late stage were 0.76 (0.61-0.87), 0.76 (0.63-0.87), 0.76 (0.61-0.87), and 0.76 (0.63-0.87). CONCLUSIONS: QAT has favorable diagnostic accuracy in the early COVID-19 stages. In addition, an appropriate cutoff point can potentially facilitate rapid identification of noncontagious patients.

HLA-A*11:01:01:01, HLA-C*12:02:02:01-HLA-B*52:01:02:02, Age and Sex Are Associated With Severity of Japanese COVID-19 With Respiratory Failure.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was announced as an outbreak by the World Health Organization (WHO) in January 2020 and as a pandemic in March 2020. The majority of infected individuals have experienced no or only mild symptoms, ranging from fully asymptomatic cases to mild pneumonic disease. However, a minority of infected individuals develop severe respiratory symptoms. The objective of this study was to identify susceptible HLA alleles and clinical markers that can be used in risk prediction model for the early identification of severe COVID-19 among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. A total of 137 patients with mild COVID-19 (mCOVID-19) and 53 patients with severe COVID-19 (sCOVID-19) were recruited from the Center Hospital of the National Center for Global Health and Medicine (NCGM), Tokyo, Japan for the period of February-August 2020. High-resolution sequencing-based typing for eight HLA genes was performed using next-generation sequencing. In the HLA association studies, HLA-A*11:01:01:01 [Pc = 0.013, OR = 2.26 (1.27-3.91)] and HLA-C*12:02:02:01-HLA-B*52:01:01:02 [Pc = 0.020, OR = 2.25 (1.24-3.92)] were found to be significantly associated with the severity of COVID-19. After multivariate analysis controlling for other confounding factors and comorbidities, HLA-A*11:01:01:01 [P = 3.34E-03, OR = 3.41 (1.50-7.73)], age at diagnosis [P = 1.29E-02, OR = 1.04 (1.01-1.07)] and sex at birth [P = 8.88E-03, OR = 2.92 (1.31-6.54)] remained significant. The area under the curve of the risk prediction model utilizing HLA-A*11:01:01:01, age at diagnosis, and sex at birth was 0.772, with sensitivity of 0.715 and specificity of 0.717. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first article that describes associations of HLA alleles with COVID-19 at the 4-field (highest) resolution level. Early identification of potential sCOVID-19 could help clinicians prioritize medical utility and significantly decrease mortality from COVID-19.

External validation and update of prediction models for unfavorable outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Japan.

INTRODUCTION: Most of the currently used prognostic models for COVID-19 are based on Western cohorts, but it is unknown whether any are applicable to patients with COVID-19 in Japan. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 160 patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to the National Center for Global Health and Medicine between January 26, 2020 and July 25, 2020. We searched PubMed for prognostic models for COVID-19. The predicted outcome was initiation of respiratory support or death. Performance of the candidate models was evaluated according to discrimination and calibration. We recalibrated the intercept of each model with our data. We also updated each model by adding ß2-microglobulin (ß2MG) to the model and recalculating the intercept and the coefficient of ß2MG. RESULTS: Mean patient age was 49.8 years, 68% were male, 88.7% were Japanese. The study outcomes occurred in 15 patients, including two deaths. Two-hundred sixty-nine papers were screened, and four candidate prognostic models were assessed. The model of Bartoletti et al. had the highest area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) (0.88; 95% confidence interval 0.81-0.96). All four models overestimated the probability of occurrence of the outcome. None of the four models showed statistically significant improvement in AUCs by adding ß2MG. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the existing prediction models for COVID-19 overestimate the probability of occurrence of unfavorable outcomes in a Japanese cohort. When applying a prediction model to a different cohort, it is desirable to evaluate its performance according to the prevalent health situation in that region.

Utility of the antigen test for coronavirus disease 2019: Factors influencing the prediction of the possibility of disease transmission.

OBJECTIVES: Rapid antigen testing (RAT) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has lower sensitivity but high accuracy during the early stage when compared to reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). The aim of this study was to investigate the concordance between RAT and RT-qPCR results, and their prediction of disease transmission. METHODS: This single-center retrospective observational study of inpatients with COVID-19 was conducted from March 6 to June 14, 2020. Nasopharyngeal swabs were used to perform RAT and RT-qPCR. The primary endpoint was concordance between RAT and RT-qPCR results. The secondary endpoints were the factors causing disagreement in the results and the estimated transmissibility in RT-qPCR-positive patients with mild symptoms. RESULTS: Overall, 229 samples in viral transport medium (VTM) were obtained from 105 patients. The positive and negative concordance rates for VTM were 41% vs 99% (κ = 0.37) and 72% vs 100% (κ = 0.50) for samples collected on disease days 2-9. An increased body temperature (odds ratio 0.54) and absence of drugs with potential antiviral effect (odds ratio 0.48) yielded conflicting results. RAT was associated with the ability to end isolation (OR 0.11, 95% confidence interval 0.20-0.61). CONCLUSIONS: RAT and RT-qPCR results were highly consistent for samples collected at the appropriate time and could be useful for inferring the possibility of transmissibility.

Prolonged and Late-Onset Symptoms of Coronavirus Disease 2019.

Some patients who recover from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have prolonged symptoms such as dyspnea, fatigue, cough, and dysosmia for longer than 120 days after symptom onset. In addition, some patients who recovered from COVID-19 reported hair loss a few months after the onset of the disease. Alopecia is a late-onset symptom of COVID-19. The cause of alopecia is unknown; however, androgenic alopecia and telogen effluvium are possible causes.